(E3 ) Working Papers Series
E3 Working Paper WP-033 Abstract
WP-033: James D. Hamilton, "Oil Prices, Exhaustible Resources,a nd Economic Growth" (February 2012) Full Paper
This chapter explores details behind the phenomenal increase in global crude oil production over the last century and a half and the implications if that trend should be reversed. I document that a key feature of the growth in production has been exploitation of new geographic areas rather than application of better technology to existing sources, and suggest that the end of that era could come soon. The economic dislocations that historically followed temporary oil supply disruptions are reviewed, and the possible implications of that experience for what the transition era could look like are explored.